The Conservatives’ problems are compounded by the unpopularity of their coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats. Most of the anti-Conservatives who voted Lib Dem in 2010 have returned to Labour. This is by far the biggest single reason why Labour’s support remains above 40%.
Now, I expect the Lib Dems to recover some support at the next election. However, the chances are that many of these defectors won’t return. Unless Miliband screws up completely (and after his performance last week, that likelihood has receded) Labour looks unlikely to slip below 35% at the next election. If so, then the Tories will need at least 42% to win a clear majority. This requires a five-point increase on last time: a surge that no governing party has achieved since Lord Palmerston led the Liberals to victory in 1857.
And that's even before a week of watching Osborne, Gove, Maude, Shapps and slimy Hunt slithering across our television screens.