Opinion polls are only snapshots, we all know that. Many people, maybe even most as far as politics is concerned, are cushions…. whoever sat on them last leaves the biggest impression. So although Cameron Fan Club member dizzy and other Tory bloggers are correct when they advise us to take the latest opinion polls with a pinch of salt, you get the impression they are frightened boys whistling in a dark room to give themselves comfort.
Mike Smithson at Political betting today says:
The most significant of today’s two polls is from Populus in the Times – the firm that at the start of the month had two surveys showing the margin at just one point. Today’s figures with changes on the last one are – CON 31%(-5): LAB 41%(+4): LD 17%(-1)
I don’t believe for a minute those figures would be replicated in a general election, but this strikes me as more than Brown ‘bounce’ added to conference ‘bounce’. The opinion polls have consistently shown Labour in the lead since
Blair stood down Brown took over and even though I have always been dubious about an Autumn election it now appears the momentum is almost unstoppable. Along with everyone else I now think this could be too big an opportunity to miss. No doubt Labour will have their own private pollsters out this week assessing the reaction from the Tory gloomfest in Blackpool, and if the indicators are right we can gear up for 1st November.
But… remember the political cushions…..