Cold Comfort

Posted on June 1, 2009 by bobpiper

I agree with Iain Dale…(bites tongue) this is serious for Labour.
However, it is not without problems for the Tories. If you look at the ICM polling data here, and scan back to 1995-97, you will see Labour in the high end of the 40%’s and sometime over 50%. After 12 years of a Labour Government, Cameron’s Tories are still struggling to break the 40% barrier. They got nearly 34% in the last general election, and for all of Cameron’s New Conservatism, they are still only hovering around 5-7% higher now.
if a governing party gains in a general election campaign, the Tories could lose some of their existing support and leave us with the dreaded ‘hung’ parliament.

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10 Responses to Cold Comfort

  1. James says:
    June 1, 2009 at 6:04 pm

    But as you know – all the polls in the run-up to the 1997 election over-stated Labour’s position. The polling methodology has changed to try to counter this. Direct comparisons are therefore meaningless.
    The percentage difference, if accurate, represents a huge swing from Labour.
    Furthermore, once Labour’s in-built electoral advance caused by large differences in constituency sizes are corrected by the electoral commission – Labour could be in serious long-term trouble/decline.

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  2. Bob Piper says:
    June 1, 2009 at 6:29 pm

    James, I think you will find I said it was serious.
    If the polls are now correct as you say, then the Tories have only made a minor gain of Labour’s lost voters compared with their actual result in 2005. That was really the point I was making. (Incidentally, the opinion polls in the run up to the 2005 election put the Tories on…. 40%)
    You may be right about Labour’s long term decline, and we may end up like Europe with two right wing social democratic parties (if we are not there already). But it is not much more than a year ago when Mike Smithson was wondering whether the Tories were going to be overtaken by the Lib Dems and go into terminal decline.
    A week in politics, and all that, as Harold used to say.
    I suspect devolution has boosted the nationalists (as the Tories said it would when they opposed it) by boosting confidence, and the UKIP advance continues to draw votes from those former tories who quite rightly don’t trust Cameron’s crew on Europe.

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  3. James says:
    June 1, 2009 at 7:04 pm

    Clearly there are two issues that should impact the way these polls are read. The first is expenses and the second is the upcoming European/local elections.
    The first issue has impacted all the parties and the Conservatives drop to 39/40% correlates with the rise of the expenses coverage. This has boosted the fringe parties.
    The second issue further impacts Labour – as voters opt to give the Governing party a good kicking.
    Once these two issues are behind us (and even the expenses story will end at somepoint) what will happen in the polls. I would expect that the Conservatives and Labour will both recover a bit. However I doubt that Labour will surge at the expense of the Conservatives (even with a new leader).
    Therefore if the percentage gap remains the same and the Tories climb to the mid-40s – you may need to revise your analysis above.
    Take your point about the speed of change. Conservatives will be given a horrendous economic legacy and the cuts required to balance the books will certainly make them unpopular.
    What is certain is that this will be an interesting fortnight in politics.

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  4. Allan says:
    June 1, 2009 at 9:33 pm

    Yes, it is serious for New Labour, but potentially it could still be serious for the Tories. Im still going to stand by my long term prediction of a Cameron majority in single figures.

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  5. Rob Atkins says:
    June 1, 2009 at 10:29 pm

    Do you ever go up to the Labour Party HQ in Victoria Street Bob ? If you do, do them a favour and switch the lights off on the way out …

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  6. newmania says:
    June 1, 2009 at 10:47 pm

    Personally I think the question is somewhat different . I think Cameron is looking beyond winning to his freedom to act when in power.. There will be cuts whoever is there but Cameron will want to rein the furious calls for tax cuts from his own support and within the Party to share the pain more equitably . He is giving up on a lot of votes which are his for the taking by sticking to the centre ground
    From my point of view this is highly irritating in that I believe the tax payer and private sector are due some revenge for the last seven years at least. Furthermore I think tax cuts and deep cuts to the state are the way back to prosperity for the country. Cameron however will have been much impressed by the Thatcher period which lacked “conservativeness” in that it was sudden and somewhat doctrinal . He is not that sort of animal , he is thinking of pragmatically and slowly occupying the centre and shifting it over two terms . The heir to Blair you might say. At this point there are votes right he is leaving .
    The other important point here is that sheer numbers are misleading ,.Right from the start the Cameron project has been all about sacrificing votes for seats . Conservatives by appealing got the core vote ala Howard , piled up huge majorities in safe seats . Cameron has always been fixated by the marginals.
    It was New Labour soundings in the marginals that made Brown lose his nerve and my hunch is that the Seats victory is far ahead if the Polls . That at least has been the plan .
    The Liberals will be squeezed , they always are a real election and the more chat there is about this two Party Socialists Reich the less they can pretend to be equidistant in the South where they are chiefly under attack from Conservatives .I do not see them as the future I think the Labour Party will re invent itself quickly and in the turbulent times to come any new boy shine will fade rapidly . This election is lost but giving up on the Labour Party…. Where are your bollocks Piper ? Mark my words , the old firm are still going to be in business and the Liberals perpetually preparing for government , or tea or something .

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  7. Henry Quisling says:
    June 3, 2009 at 1:08 am

    The Conservatives were on 40% before the 2005 GE? Really?! Wells disagrees: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    Your attitude to statistics is very slipshod. 32.3% voted for the Tories in 2005, not “nearly 34%”. And, as has already been pointed out, looking at pre-1997 polls is comparing apples with oranges.
    Quite apart from this, it doesn’t particularly matter how the Conservatives do, provided that their lead is large enough. Don’t forget Sunday’s Ipsos-MORI poll – 40-18-18!

    Reply
  8. Bob says:
    June 3, 2009 at 7:59 am

    Henry, you are right about the 32.3%. However, the three ICM polls that appeared in April 2005 showed the Tories on 39%, 39% and 40%. The pre-1997 polls are not really that important if we have the 2005 data and the actual election result itself.
    The central point I was making was that the Conservatives have not really capitalised on Labour’s weak position.

    Reply
  9. Mark M says:
    June 3, 2009 at 12:02 pm

    Err, might want to go to Specsavers Bob.
    ICM/Guardian polls in April 2005 had LABOUR on 39%, 39% and 40%. They had the Tories on 33%, 33% and 33%.

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  10. Bob says:
    June 3, 2009 at 12:45 pm

    You are quite right, Mark. Which more or less makes the rest of this post redundant.
    I’m off the Specsavers now….

    Reply

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