I’m not sure Iain fully gets the point here. In response to a suggestion on Labour Matters that Tories are ‘sexing-up’ a February election in order to try to make Brown look indecisive if he doesn’t call one, Iain responds with….
“If only I had the power to influence when an election was called! Believe me, I wouldn’t hesitate to use it to get this lot out of office.”
And that’s fair enough… but it wasn’t what was being suggested, surely. The point of the Labour Matters story wasn’t that the Tories wanted an election, but that they wanted to try to create a hysteria that there might be one.
For what it’s worth, I can let you all in to a little secret (but please promise not to tell anyone). There won’t be a February election. Actually, there won’t be a Spring election, nor even a Summer election in 2009. I know some people are predicting a General Election to coincide with the Euro elections in June, but it’s not going to happen. The campaign around the Euro elections will inevitably be around Lisbon Treaty and Labour’s failed promise to hold a Referendum. Those who feel robbed of a referendum will be out in force, and they are hardly likely to vote Tory or Lib Dem in the Euros and Labour in a General Election.
So, it’s Autumn 2009… or go all the way and settle for a Spring 2010 date. Well, if the predicted recession is showing signs of recovery next Autumn, and mortgage interest and fuel prices continue to fall or stabilise, then I reckon that’s a definite. As I’ve said here before, from 2010 the VAT rate will return to 17.5%… and there ain’t no wriggle room for ‘events, dear boy’. So… (and I didn’t get this from that nice Mr Draper)… put your money on the first week in October 2009… you heard it here first!
Finally, Iain, don’t be so touchy. I’ve never thought of you as Andy Coulson’s bitch (more David Davis’ parrot).
Postscript: I would also like to take issue with Iain’s suggestion that we never say anything nice about the Tories. I have been extremely complimentary about Andrew Lansley as Shadow Health Secretary in the past, and there was my impassioned plea on behalf of George Osborne despite the criticism he was getting from many in his own party.
For what it’s worth, I agree with you (which I’m sure is a great comfort). A February election would leave the Govt open to the accusation that it’s cutting and running before the recession really hits.
Worth pointing out, too, that Labour backed out last time because their lead was dropping to only about 5%. Well, that’s kinda their deficit at the moment. We can scoff at Brown bottling stuff, but it’s not brave to call an election when the most likely outcome is that you will lose your majority…
Just popped over to Yahoo News to vote on the “Should overpaid pensions be repaid to the government?” I being old, and in receipt of a pension, although not an overpaid one, voted with my fellow pensioners “No”. However what I found very puzzling was that 307 folk had voted “DON’T KNOW”,now that’s daft, why bother voting to say you don’t know. Then again they could have been old and confused, we sometimes do tick the wrong boxes, but we’ll be sure to tick Gordons box at the next election, an extra �60 is on it’s way this week I believe, God bless you guv.
Perhaps people who “don’t know” are torn between wanting people who were overpaid by mistake to not be punished for it and not wanting the rest of us who having to pay for it instead, Mike.
When people on benefits get overpaid, it’s called ‘fraud’, even if it’s an honest mistake (or just a lag between a change in circumstances and the bureaucracy updating its figures).
Good points but I still do not see how it can be left any longer than June next year.
Danivon: And what do you call it when MPs fiddle their expenses, perks of the job?
JHL – I don’t actually agree with calling such things fraud, it’s just how it’s done.
As a councillor, I sat with the Housing Benefit team as they merrily caught ‘fraud’ – which was basically just updating people’s details and recalculating the new benefit. If the change was to reduce the benefit and had to be backdated, it was ‘fraud’ and the council could claim extra money from the government as a reward.
Madness.
(when MPs fiddle their expenses it is actually fraud – when people knowingly take money that they are not entitled to and in so doing misrepresent the facts, that is fraud)
You’re going soft!