Bob Piper
Bob Piper










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That Figures   » Permalink  |  TrackBack (0)

I caught the end of Question Time last night and was quite taken by one of the answers from Alex Salmond. The question had been about the publication of the crime figures, and the Labour, Tory and Lib Dem spokesperson had all split on tribal grounds about whether violent crime statistics could be believed or not. Salmond said... it just doesn't matter, no-one pays any attention to these figures at all.

And he's almost right too. There are those that do. Journalists, senior police officers, politicians, and political pundits and a few anoraks. Less than 0.01% of the population, I guess. No-one else either believes them, or cares about them. They are statistics... that's all, and the general population are indifferent to them.

When we hear banks being bailed out by being given so many billion pounds - or is it trillions these days - it means nothing to us. Whether they get 42 million quid, or 4 trillion, they are figures the government release and the media salivate over, but to ordinary working class folk they mean sod all. Like the ticking figures in the sidebar to this blog about how much the war in Iraq has cost... $565,000,000,000 or thereabouts as I write. They are meaningless sums to people. We can just about envisage the life changing notion of a lottery win of a couple of million, but beyond that... they're just figures.

So whether the violent crime statistics are up 22% or down 15% washes right over the heads of most people. They hear different politicians manipulating them to their own ends, they haven't got a clue how the figures are compiled, and they switch right off. As Salmond said, what people care about is whether they and/or their family members have got a job, are safe walking the streets, and can afford their rent or mortgage. That's how they judge how secure they feel, not whether some politician or pundit is twittering on about statistics on Newsnight.

So, as I was criticised in a previous comment for writing too much about football and not enough about poetry and the arts, I'll finish with a little contribution from Mersey poet Roger McGough, called Conservative Party Unemployment Figures:

Conservative Party....
Unemployment....
That figures!

Posted by bobpiper on October 24, 2008, 8:42 AM  |  view comments (5) or add another



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Hughes Views said:
October 24, 2008 9:36 AM | permalink

But without evidence we're sunk. We have to fall back onto the sort of folksy anecdotes beloved by populist politicians such as Mr Salmond.

Frinstance - there's a widespread belief that "more bobbies on the beat" is the answer to reducing crime but evidence suggests that "more bobbies in surveillance vans" when the pubs and clubs chuck out is far more effective.

Without evidence, and the statistics that give shape to it, policy-makers are working blind with no way of judging whether their schemes have succeeded or failed...




Bob Piper said:
October 24, 2008 9:46 AM | permalink

I wouldn't necessarily disagree with you Brian, but that wasn't quite my point, or Salmond's.

My point was that with the exception of the few (and admit it, you're an anorak) no-one either believes them or pays them any heed.

I have no problem with people making evidence based decisions, although even then should be used guardedly given the way the evidence can be 'spun'.




mike said:
October 24, 2008 11:29 AM | permalink

Daily Mail readers believe them and blame Gordon, old folk believe them but don't know who to blame.




fred said:
October 24, 2008 11:34 AM | permalink

The Leader

I wanna be the leader
I wanna be the leader
Can I be the leader?
Can I? I can?
Promise? Promise?
Yippee I'm the leader
I'm the leader
OK what shall we do?

Roger McGough




margaret macklin said:
October 24, 2008 12:28 PM | permalink

Trust you to be a fan of the Scafold!
I think the public may be interested in the statistics of the reduction in payment for the criminal justice system.





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