Bob Piper has been a Labour Councillor for the Abbey
Ward in Sandwell, West Midlands, for 10 years. He is a lifelong supporter of Aston Villa Football Club and a follower of Yorkshire County Cricket Club.
The views expressed here are mine in a personal capacity, not those of the Labour Party, Sandwell MBC, Aston Villa or Yorkshire County Cricket Club. Get it! Mine... just mine!
The volatility of the opinion polls (not to mention that of those who write about them) is demonstrated today at Political Betting. Less than 2 weeks after Mike Smithson said he thought the Lib Dems were closing in on Labour to claim the position as the leading party of the left (left????), we find this attack of the jitters today.
Presumably Mike is on his way back from his constituency where he has been preparing for power, and has started casting an eye in the direction of another generation in the political wilderness.
Of course, for Labour, we need the Lib Dems to put up a better show than this because across much of the South of England they are the main opposition to the Tories. If the Lib Dems bite into a chunk of that Tory lead and get back up to the 21-22% share of the vote, the task facing Labour becomes so much less. If Labour were then to get just 2 in a hundred of the current Tory share to switch, Cameron's majority melts away completely.
However, I must emphasise again, I give no credence whatsoever to these opinion polls, particularly in mid-term, but what they do demonstrate is the fragility of the Tory lead and that the game isn't up yet. And those siren voices from the likes of the Guardian's SDP correspondent Polly Toynbee may just be wasting good trees.
Bob, I do not quite get why you are stating that the Tory lead is fragile.
For several months now, the Tory share has been in the 40s and Labours in the 20s. That doesn't look fragile to me.
If the polls were so unreliable, then why is there the frenzy in your own party (and you can't just blame the media - they are being briefed by your colleagues, the leaks are coming from your colleagues)?
I don't believe that the Tory lead is a going to be that solid all the way through to polling day but all the indications are that it will be a lead and it could well be enough to secure a good working majority.
The Lib Dems under Clegg are not making an impact, they won't make an impact. A short election campaign might see a slight shift in their position but in all honesty the public will vote for the party who has positioned themselves as the ones who can remove Labour from office - because that is clearly (from the polling and anecdotal evidence) the way things are heading.
Yes, a lot can change between now and the election. However, with your party in such an internal war, that election is getting much closer and your chances of closing the gap substantially diminishing rapidly.
Mickey cool said:
August 3, 2008 12:12 PM | permalink
29% is pretty good, for mid terms blues. I bet secretly the tories will be dissapointed by this opinion survey.
Where is this 50% they keep expecting. Even Thatcher and Blair got over 50% in some surveys in opposition. :
As i said a few bad months will be forgotten soon.
Mike Smithson said:
August 3, 2008 12:12 PM | permalink
I think your maths are a bit wonky there Bob. Based on today's poll Labour needs about 7-8 Tory voters in 100 to switch for the projected outcome to get back into hung parliament territory. That would make it LAB 33% to the Tories 42%.
Though your general point is valid - it does not take that much of a swing back to Labour for the outlook to seem very different.
There's a massive difference in terms of seats between a Tory 9% lead and 12% one
Godzilla said:
August 3, 2008 12:15 PM | permalink
If, if if.. It aint going to happen. The Tories thought that Labours lead was "soft" in 1995 and look what happened. The only likelihoood is Labours poll ratings will drop as the economy gets worse. Labours best and outside chance is a hung paliament, as for a majority or most seats, pipe dream springs to mind.
Bob Piper said:
August 3, 2008 12:54 PM | permalink
Mike, I'm perfectly willing to accept my maths are wonky. But surely if the Lib Dems recover 6% from the Tories, and Labour get 2%, that would bring the Tories down to around 37%?
As I indicated, I don't think it will happen, but I was merely demonstrating that the Tory lead is not as concrete as their supporters seem to think.
Theo, I don't think the Party are 'at war'. A handful of backbench MPs who would never have supported Brown in the first place does not a war make. Blair had far more internal strife over Iraq and Hutton and still won a comfortable majority two years later.
An ongoing dilemma for Labour supporters in a Lib held Lib/Con marginal, who should we oppose the most? In local elections it has to be the hopelessly flip/flopperty Libs but when the general election comes along there's always the niggling question of whether we'd really want a Tory MP...
Mickey the cool dude said:
August 3, 2008 3:14 PM | permalink
The tory lead is soft. The tories lost in 97 because they were dissloyal backstabbers OK so some blairites are doing the same but they can just shut up.
This Blair memo has shown the whol chaos is due to that bllomi blair.
August 3, 2008 11:00 AM | permalink
Bob, I do not quite get why you are stating that the Tory lead is fragile.
For several months now, the Tory share has been in the 40s and Labours in the 20s. That doesn't look fragile to me.
If the polls were so unreliable, then why is there the frenzy in your own party (and you can't just blame the media - they are being briefed by your colleagues, the leaks are coming from your colleagues)?
I don't believe that the Tory lead is a going to be that solid all the way through to polling day but all the indications are that it will be a lead and it could well be enough to secure a good working majority.
The Lib Dems under Clegg are not making an impact, they won't make an impact. A short election campaign might see a slight shift in their position but in all honesty the public will vote for the party who has positioned themselves as the ones who can remove Labour from office - because that is clearly (from the polling and anecdotal evidence) the way things are heading.
Yes, a lot can change between now and the election. However, with your party in such an internal war, that election is getting much closer and your chances of closing the gap substantially diminishing rapidly.