Bob Piper has been a Labour Councillor for the Abbey
Ward in Sandwell, West Midlands, for nine years. He is a lifelong supporter of Aston Villa Football Club and a follower of Yorkshire County Cricket Club.
The views expressed here are mine in a personal capacity, not those of the Labour Party, Sandwell MBC, Aston Villa or Yorkshire County Cricket Club. Get it! Mine... just mine!
I cannot recall a Tory or the Tories ever losing an election when within six weeks a poll has shown them enjoying such a margin. There might be a precedent but I am not aware of it.
Things looked pretty grim for Ken. Johnson was being kept quiet to prevent his stupid comments getting in to the media, Gilligan was mud slinging for Boris in the Evening Standard in their bid to destabilise Ken, and the bookies had Johnson as odds-on favourite. Surely, not even cheecky-chappy Ken could turn this around.
Well... he just might defy all of the odds and do it. The latest opinion polls seem to show he has turned around Johnson's double digit lead, Political Betting reports that....
The mayoral betting has moved to Ken in the past 36 hours and Boris's price is now at 0.73/1.
... and the Standard seems to want to avoid embarrassment by tempering its attacks on Livingstone.
If Livingstone does succeed, this will surely be his finest hour. Giving Tony Blair a bloody nose by standing as an independent was a tremendous personal achievement, and winning as a Labour candidate once again four years later was pretty impressive. But on both occasions the Tories were in disarray nationally and their candidate had problems because of his association with outsourcers Jarvis. But to win a third term against a man who has made a name for himself as a jovial Bunterish-buffoon on 'Have I Got News For You' whilst the Tories are flying high in the opinion polls, will be a tremendous achievement.
A Livingstone win would definitely boost Labour if, as predicted, we lose badly in the local authority elections, if only because it will show that during a four-week election campaign, even double-digit opinion poll leads can melt away.
But to win a third term against a man who has made a name for himself as a jovial Bunterish-buffoon on 'Have I Got News For You' ... will be a tremendous achievement
Now that is a sad reflection on the state of politics in this country!
In fact of course both Ken and Boris are very intelligent and effective political operators. It is a matter of opinion how effective ken has been as a mayor, and a matter of conjecture how good Boris might be. A very difficult choice for Londoners. I can't help but feel the second preference votes are almost impossible to predict, as is the result of the election
The big example of the Tories losing when they were expected to win must be 1945.
Not only would it be good for Ken, it would be bad for Boris; turning over a double-digit national lead for the Tories would be impressive indeed.
newmania said:
April 28, 2008 10:15 AM | permalink
A Livingstone win would definitely boost Labour
Why when Ken has campaigned on the basis he has nothing to do with Labour ?Its a no win for Brown and by any fair reckoning for Boris to get close in London is major achievement. Ken`s vote is all paid for by the tax payer and naturally shouild be higher.
I would love Boris to win because London is already turnining into a slum with a crystal walled City it has nothing to do with.Its sad to see the old communities squeezed out. I `m not sure if the national scene is much connected however.In the London media it will be assumed it is vastly important for a week.
I agree with the New Statseman. Its a no win for Brown
Have you seen the most recent poll? 11 point lead for Boris. YouGov has been consistent that Boris has had a large lead. MORI and MRUK have been consistent that it's neck-and-neck.
If Ken does win, the result won't be an indication that Ken closed the gap during the campaign - it will be an indication that YouGov's polling technique has become deeply flawed.
And before anyone says that it already is, remember that YouGov was the most reliable pollster in 2005, and in the 2004 mayoral race...
April 27, 2008 1:31 PM | permalink
But to win a third term against a man who has made a name for himself as a jovial Bunterish-buffoon on 'Have I Got News For You' ... will be a tremendous achievement
Now that is a sad reflection on the state of politics in this country!
In fact of course both Ken and Boris are very intelligent and effective political operators. It is a matter of opinion how effective ken has been as a mayor, and a matter of conjecture how good Boris might be. A very difficult choice for Londoners. I can't help but feel the second preference votes are almost impossible to predict, as is the result of the election