I don't think he'll do it, but it hasn't half been fun watching the Tories desperately try and find some policies this last week as they panic about what Gordon might do.

An election now would look opportunistic so I don't expect a cautious man like Brown to go down that path. I do think there will be a price to pay for not killing this speculation as he will be seen to have played us as fools. I find Brown's conduct through these three months deeply worrying but he's lucky - the Tories are so incompetent that they couldn't organise a prayer meeting in a cathedral.

Paul... how has he played us for fools? The media have done that. All Brown has done was refused to provide them with an election date and they have done the rest. I suspect, as JRD says, the people he has played for fools are the Tories. They have whipped themselves up into an orgasm of unity... and then they have to go back and face the cold light of another long winter in opposition.

I think you're wrong for a couple of reasons.

(1) Tories don't actually 'want' an election now and Brown knows it. Eternal Tory optimists may cling to 1970 but the realists know an election this year would see Brown returned and Tory meltdown as a consequence. The public 'bring it on' stance is just posturing since they couldn't possibly say anything else given the cries that followed Blair stepping down.

(2) The other reason is the old mis-quote on 'events, dear boy, events'. If he goes now Brown can manufacture some tension with his EU counterparts on 18/19th of Oct over the EU treaty (suggested in the Gaurdian today) and so neutralise that issue. The economy is still reasonably strong but almost every non-partisan economic expert predicts things will worsen because they always do no matter who's in office. Any delay turns those to positives into negatives not to mention allowing the possibility of scandals etc. which after a decade in power are almost inevitable (cue Newmania on how it didn't take a decade for evil Labour to get embroiled in scandal - sorry!)

Believe me Bob, as a moderate Tory (for the moment - I am shifting) the last thing the Tories need now is an election and so if Brown's wise he'll text Lizzie pretty soon...

I hope GB has not overlooked that in Wales & in Jockland the hard core of actavists who provide the admin etc services at an Election are rapidley running out of leave from our employers.

Here in this part of Wales this year 1 assembly election, and 5 Council byelections (2 holds. 2 gains + 1 "walk over") And yes, much of the printing etc was done for the "walkover" before the Nats ran away.

I do not relish a General Election in November.

Time will tell, Cassilis... I'll stick with my prediction of no election, despite the fact that Tom Watson is running around like a madman getting ready to go.

(By the way, are you shifting from moderate - and if so, why - or shifting from Conservative?)

Gareth, that's a good point on annual leave, but when did central government ever give a thought for local government?

Bob, in my time I have had to put up with much abuse etc from the left, this I can tolerate - But to accuse me of working for local government .....!

I've always thought the distance between people like me (genuinely moderate Tories on the party's left) and those on the reforming right-wing end of Labour is far smaller than the internal distance between me and the Ancram / Heffer mob of Tories.

I only joined the Tories last year in the belief that:

(1) Brown wasn't commited to the centrist route set out by Blair and would move swiftly left and

(2) Cameron's reforms would be genuine and deep and he'd rid the party of it's nasty insular wing and resurrect 'one nation' toryism.

The last few months suggest I may be wrong on both counts - if so I would feel far more comfortable (not actually 'comfortable' mind, just more so) on the reforming centrist wing of Labour than the rump of modernisers in the Tories.

If Brown goes now I suspect the Tories will lose, Fox or Davis will take over and you'll have to move me on your sidebar.

Gareth, I wasn't, but certainly around here most staff working on elections tend to be local government employees.

Cassilis, you would be more than welcome.

Ah, but didn't Frankie also talk about Two Tribes going to war?

I'm still insisting it'll be June 2009. But many comrades and colleagues disagree of course.

Meanwhile we have had a little delve on this Gove Youth Militia story here. Gove's other side kick spoke up for Labour in effect in 2005. And the co-founder of the Sufi Muslim org is a LP apparatchik.

It is no wonder that he was looking embarrassed to be introduced as a Tory by the naughty dissembling Tory.

God I hope there's an election! I'm bored. Bored Bored Bored. B-O-R-E-D. Has anybody read 'The Man Who Was Thursday' by GK Chesterton by the way? Its a good book

P.S. Who is this Casillas person? He seems a nice fellow.

John, read his blog... it's on the sidebar (currently listed as being on the 'right')