Bob Piper
Bob Piper










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'And Smith must score ...'   » Permalink  |  TrackBack (0)

As election fever builds amongst journos and political hacks, the latest favoured date appears to be 1st November. Terrific. I looked out of the window at 7.00pm last night as the rain blew in on a cold north easterly... and the thought of getting out the vote made my heart sink. Why would he do it, I wondered.

Comparisons with the dog days of Callaghan's government keep being made, but they are spurious. That was a tired government with a Leader who postponed the Autumn election and left himself with no flexibility. He had to go by the Spring of 1979. Brown isn't in that position, he has another two and a half years to decide when to go to the country.

Perhaps the one lesson from the Callaghan government could be playing on Brown's mind though. Thatcher didn't so much win the '79 election as Sunny Jim lost it. As I said earlier, a tired government, divided and bickering, running out of ideas, and which had, frankly, made a pig's ear of things. I think the same thing can be said of the Major government in 1997. The tories were hopelessly split over Europe and the lack of any fresh ideas meant that Major had to rely on gimmicks such as the 'cones hotline'. Almost anyone (with the possible exception of Neil Kinnock) could have driven Labour to victory in '97. No serious political commentator would deny that John Smith would have delivered the same result that Blair and his acolytes claimed for themselves.

So, you could say that Thatcher and Blair didn't sweep their way into power so much as ram the ball into a gaping net. That could be where Brown is now. Cameron appears to have lost a substantial minority of his own party, and even those touched with the faith are looking decidedly wobbly. All the talk is of defections and who will replace 'Dave' when he cycles off into the sunset. When you read Tory loyalists writing this sort of thing, you know they have got a problem. I don't go along with the sort of nonsense which implies Brown will 'bottle it' if he doesn't go in the Autumn. He doesn't need to go now. The electorate are suspicious of politicians who want early elections, - what does he know that we don't - but the almost equally compelling argument is that the shambles of this Conservative opposition, miles behind in the opinion polls after over 10 years of trying, does present him with the attractive sight of a ball at his feet and a gaping wide goal....

... but they don't always go in do they, as another Gordon could testify.

Posted by bobpiper on September 28, 2007, 11:24 AM  |  view comments (5) or add another



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Bel said:
September 28, 2007 1:01 PM | permalink

Hi Bob, thanks for the link.

I'm hardly a 'Tory loyalist' :) I left the party in fury a few months ago, but I understand the point you're making.

Clearly the problem with the Conservative Party is not that its core principles are repellent. As I argued in the linked article, if the core conservative principles were repellent, Gordon Brown would not be claiming them now as his. So if the problem is not with the principles, what is it?

We had Michael Howard a few years ago who said much of what Gordon Brown and Labour are saying now, and he was denounced as a rightwing extremist. Now Labour is using the same language, and it's alright.

Given the kind of abuse that follows Tories whenever they 'revert to the core vote strategy' (as that tired cliche goes), it is understandable that Cameron didn't want to do that initially. But whatever it is he's doing now doesn't seem to be very effective for the Conservative Party, hence the problem.

My own advice would have been for Cameron to hold firm to conservative beliefs, while reaching out those on the left. Kind of like what Brown seems to be doing, only the other way round. However, today's Telegraph carries some stories that indicate that Cameron may now be heading that way.

Apologies for the long comment. Sometimes I get carried away. :)




jameshigham said:
September 28, 2007 1:19 PM | permalink

...As I said earlier, a tired government, divided and bickering, running out of ideas, and which had, frankly, made a pig's ear of things...

You're so right, Bob. That's Gordo's govenment to a tee.




Bob Piper said:
September 28, 2007 1:34 PM | permalink

In trying to make your satirical point James, you miss the point with all the accuracy of Gordon Smith himself. Brown's government is new, it hasn't had time to split, run out of ideas or make a pig's ear of things (in fact on terrorism, flooding, mad cow disease there is generally a public feeling of competency). You may not see it that way... but the public, sadly for you, do.




Bel said:
September 28, 2007 2:46 PM | permalink

Bob, do the public really believe that Brown's government is 'new'? If that is the case, then I don't know what to think.

First, and perhaps it's a technical point, and I could be wrong, but I don't think we can have a change of government without an election.

Second, if the public have been hoodwinked into thinking that this is a brand new Government (as opposed to the same old one they voted in in 2005, just with a change of leader), then Gordon's spin machine is working better than imagined.




Bob Piper said:
September 28, 2007 4:23 PM | permalink

Bel, it is merely a technical point. New Persil washes whiter doesn't mean it is an entirely new product, simply an old product revamped. Of course the public think the Brown Government is a 'new' one. They were weary of Blair, so they get a new PM with a new Chancellor, new Foreign Secretary, new Home Secretary and half a dozen new initiatives i.e. old initiatives dressed up to look new.

Despair as you may... it worked for Major in 1990. Out with Thatcher and her cronies, out with the Poll Tax I don't recall the Tories squealing about it then. Actually... we weren't too upset about that either... so learn to live with it, you might even like it and join the party!!!





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