The Guardian has a nicely balanced front page today. ‘Poll warning to Brown’ – they splash – ‘PM could lose majority if he goes for early vote’ .
Yes, that is The Guardianistas reading of a poll which shows Labour up 1% from last month, despite the fact that they extrapolate from the poll results a Labour overall majority of about 50 seats. How come? You might well ask. the answer, apparently is… If Labour support dropped by two points in the course of an election campaign, and Conservative support rose, Mr Brown would be returned to Downing Street with a majority of little over 10 seats.
So, let me see if I’ve got that correct. Labour’s popularity has grown again (possibly you can remember the Tory bloggers wetting themselves with glee when Cameron peaked on 39%) and on the poll results reflect a lead of around 50 seats… but IF the Tories gained another 2%… Labour would only win by about 10 seats.
That apparently represents PM could lose majority if he goes for early vote. The good news for the nation is that 11 years in to a Labour Government, Labour still has a comfortable lead over the Tories in the eyes of the crystal ball gazers.
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Don’t be too perplexed Bob – Labour’s sense of electoral reality and pragmatism is reasonably sound.
As you pointed out, the Tories thought they were home & dry when they landed at 39% and now they’ve dropped again the suggestion in some quarters is that it’s all over and Cameron should get the boot. Labours more cautious & measured approach makes sense.
Cassilis, the truth is the polls are a bit like trying to work out the future by staring at tea leaves in the bottom of your cup. When exit polls on election night can get it wildly wrong I see no point in anyone getting worked up about the views of a couple of thousand people in between their shopping months, or even years before election day. The Tory hawks won’t drop Cameron this side of a general election, no matter how much common sense he talks, but their seeming lack of enthusiasm for him sends out a message to the electorate of a divided party.
Yawn, another newspaper survey. Pray to whatever higher power you believe in that this is the last vestige of the silly season and we can actually deal with some real political news again.